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home values » The Home Buyer IQ

  • Home Affordability Reaches Record-Levels… Last Quarter.
    By on December 9, 2010 | No Comments  Comments

    Home Affordability - Top and Bottom 5 markets 2010 Q3

    Last quarter, with home prices still relatively low and mortgage rates making new, all-time lows almost weekly, the cost of home ownership was extraordinarily low in NH and most U.S. markets.

    According to the National Association of Home Builders’ quarterly Home Opportunity Index, 72.5 percent of all new and existing homes sold between June-September 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income. This ties the all-time high for home affordability, set in the first quarter of 2009.

    The data also underscores that, when compared to historical norms, it’s a fantastic time to be a Bedford home buyer.

    Prior to 2009, the Home Opportunity Index rarely topped 65. The index has remained above 70 ever since.

    All real estate is local, though, and on a city-by-city basis, home affordability varied last quarter.

    For example, 96% of homes sold in Kokomo, IN are affordable for families earning the area’s median income. This handily beat the average figure and led the nation. Looking at major cities, Indianapolis led the pack.

    93% of homes in Indianapolis are affordable to families earning the area’s median income. This ranks #9 nationwide.

    On the opposite end of the affordability scale is the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ region. For the 10th consecutive quarter, the New York Metro region ranks last in U.S. home affordability. Just 23% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, although this is 3 points higher versus Q1 2010.

    The rankings for all 225 metro areas are available online.

    Regardless of where your hometown ranks relative to its neighbors, home affordability remains high as compared to historical values. That said, with mortgage rates rising and home sales expected to climb this winter, it’s unlikely that the Home Opportunity Index will improve.

    Buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you planned to buy in mid-2011, consider moving up your time frame.

  • Which Model Is More Accurate : The Case-Shiller Index Or The Home Price Index?
    By on September 9, 2010 | No Comments  Comments

    Home Price Index from April 2007 peak

    The private-sector Case-Shiller Index reported home values up 5 percent nationwide in June. The government’s own Home Price Index, however, reached a different conclusion.

    According to the Federal Home Finance Agency, month-to-month home values fell 0.3 percent in June, and values are down by 1.7 percent from June 2009.

    So, as a home buyer and/or homeowner in Manchester , by which valuation model should you make your bets?  Perhaps neither. 

    This is because both the Case-Shiller Index and the Home Price have inherent methodology flaws, the most glaring of which is their respective sample sets. 

    The Case-Shiller sample set, for example, comes from just 20 cities across the country — and they’re not even the 20 most populated cities. Together, the Case-Shiller cities represent just 9 percent of the overall U.S. population

    That’s hardly representative of the housing stock overall.

    By comparison, the Home Price Index tracks home sales everywhere — every city in every state — but it specifically excludes certain properties.  The Home Price Index does not track sales of homes for which the financing comes from agencies other than Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. This means that as FHA loans grow in popularity, the pool of Home Price Index-eligible homes is reducing. 

    The HPI ignores homes backed by “jumbo” loans, too.

    Therefore, the “right” model for home values cannot come from national data at all — it can only come locally. Neither Case-Shiller nor the government has the tools to get as granular as a neighborhood like Goffstown. A real estate agent in the area does, however.

    The best way to get a pulse for what’s happening in markets right now is to talk to somebody with good data.

  • Home Affordability Rankings For 225 Metropolitan Statistical Areas
    By on August 27, 2010 | No Comments  Comments

    Home Affordability - Top and Bottom 5 markets 2010 Q2

    With home prices holding firm and mortgage rates still dropping, home affordability is reaching new heights.

    According to the quarterly Home Opportunity Index as published by the National Association of Home Builders, more than 72 percent of all new and existing homes sold between April-June 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income.

    It’s a slightly higher reading as compared to last quarter, and the second highest reading in the survey’s history.

    As with all aspects of real estate, however, home affordability varies by locale. 

    For example, 97.2% of homes sold in Syracuse were affordable for families making the area’s median income, earning the New York city its first “Most Affordable Major City” designation.  Indianapolis was the first quarter winner.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum, the “Least Affordable Major City” title went to the New York-White Plains, NY-Wayne, NJ area for the 9th consecutive quarter.  Just 19.9% of homes are affordable to families earning the local median income, down 1 percent from last quarter.

    The rankings for all 225 metro areas are viewable on the NAHB website but regardless of where you live, buying a home is as affordable as it’s ever been in history. Furthermore, because home values are in recovery and mortgage rates may rise, the market is ripe for home buyers in Concord.

    All things equal, buying a home may never be this inexpensive again. If you were planning to purchase later this year, you may want to move up your time frame.